By Babalola Enikanselu
As political activities are fast gaining momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, the All Progressives Congress (APC) must make difficult but necessary decisions if it intends to retain strategic constituencies that would help President Bola Tinubu win his reelection comfortably across the country. One such constituency is the Okitipupa/Irele Federal Constituency of Ondo State.
The APC currently occupies the seat through Hon. Jimi Odimayo. However, granting him an automatic return ticket will prove politically disastrous and calamitous for the party. If the party ignores the prevailing mood of the electorate and the realities on the ground, it risks surrendering the constituency to the opposition in 2027.
There are several reasons this warning should be taken seriously. One of such is the growing public disenchantment with Odimayo’s abysmal representation.
Across Okitipupa and Irele local government areas, many voters complain that they have not felt the impact of federal representation under the current lawmaker. Constituents who once expected robust legislative engagement, constituency projects, empowerment programmes, and effective advocacy now express disappointment over what they perceive as a lacklustre performance. Politics is ultimately about perception. Whether fair or unfair, the prevailing perception among many voters is that the current representative has not justified the confidence reposed in him. They believe with concrete evidence that he does not have the capacity or the competence to discharge the responsibilities of his office effectively.
Well, for the politically conscious and discerning, elections are won by popular candidates who can inspire voters to come out and defend their mandate. A candidate burdened by widespread unpopularity becomes a liability rather than an asset. Odimayo, without a whiff of doubt, is an electoral liability to the APC. That’s why he has been running helter-skelter looking for a way to be imposed on the constituency. It is the lot of the party to reject him like the leprous finger that he is if the party wants to retain the seat in 2027 and beyond. The APC cannot afford to enter a crucial election cycle with a candidate whom many party faithful and ordinary voters struggle to support enthusiastically. It is a galling defeat waiting to happen.
Does the APC want to overlook Odimayo’s disastrous performance as a lawmaker and reward incompetence with a return ticket? Since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, Okitipupa/Irele Federal Constituency has been represented by several lawmakers, each with varying degrees of success and public acceptance.
It is abundantly clear that Odimayo’s tenure compares unfavourably with those of his predecessors. This is a statement of fact. Where are his landmark projects? What about his non-engagement with the constituency? Shall we jettison his lack of visible legislative accomplishments and return him to the Green Chamber again? In politics, incumbency is supposed to be an advantage. However, incumbency becomes a disadvantage when the officeholder cannot point to tangible achievements that resonate with the people. The APC must ask itself a simple question: What compelling achievements will be presented to voters as justification for another term? If that question cannot be answered convincingly, then offering an automatic ticket becomes an invitation to electoral defeat.
Perhaps the most important issue is the longstanding rotational arrangement that has helped maintain political stability and fairness within the constituency between the two local governments that constitute it. Since 1999, there has been an unwritten understanding regarding the rotation of the House of Representatives seat among the constituent local government areas. This arrangement has fostered inclusion, reduced political tension, and ensured that no section of the constituency feels perpetually excluded from representation.
By the time the current tenure ends in 2027, it is Okitipupa Local Government’s turn to produce the next representative. Even Odimayo once alluded to the rotational arrangement concerning the seat when he made his now famous statement: “Okitipupa do two, Irele do one.” Attempting to disrupt this understanding could generate resentment not only among political leaders but also among ordinary voters who view the rotational principle as a matter of equity and justice.
History has shown that political parties often suffer when they ignore local power-sharing arrangements. Such decisions frequently create internal divisions, encourage defections, suppress voter enthusiasm, and provide opposition parties with opportunities to exploit grievances. The APC should be particularly cautious about creating avoidable conflicts within its own support base.
It may not be out of place to sound a note of warning that imposing an unpopular candidate has the potential to demoralise party members. APC once suffered from this same fate in Ondo South. Grassroots mobilisation remains the backbone of electoral success. Ward leaders, polling unit agents, community influencers, and loyal party supporters are essential to winning elections. When these stakeholders feel ignored, many become reluctant to commit their time and energy to campaign efforts.
An automatic ticket for a candidate who is as unpopular and underperforming could trigger disaffection among party loyalists who believe a more competitive candidate should emerge through a transparent primary process. A divided APC would enter the election weakened, while opposition parties would capitalise on the resulting dissatisfaction to pull a win.
Well, for the party’s high chieftains and decision makers in Abuja, the opposition is waiting to spring a surprise if Odimayo is imposed on the constituency with an undeserving return ticket. Politics abhors a vacuum. Every weakness displayed by a ruling party becomes an opportunity for its opponents.
If the APC presents a candidate burdened by poor public perception and questions surrounding performance while simultaneously disregarding the constituency’s rotational expectations, opposition parties will seize upon these issues and make them central campaign themes. The election would then cease to be a contest of party structures and become a referendum on fairness, performance, and responsiveness to the people’s aspirations.
Can the APC redeem itself and prevent the impending disaster? Yes, it can. The APC still has ample opportunity to avoid this outcome. What should the party do? The party should prioritise electability over incumbency, public acceptance over entitlement, and fairness over political convenience. Most importantly, the party should respect the established rotational understanding that has contributed to political harmony within the constituency for over two decades.
Political parties win elections when they listen to the people. They lose elections when they ignore clear warning signs. If the APC insists on giving Hon. Jimi Odimayo an automatic return ticket despite concerns about his popularity, performance, and the rotational expectations favouring Okitipupa Local Government Area, the party may discover too late that it has handed the opposition its best opportunity to capture Okitipupa/Irele Federal Constituency in 2027.
The choice before the APC is simple: heed the voice of the people now or face the verdict of the electorate later.
Babalola Enikanselu is a political analyst based in Okitipupa.
